Earthquake damage to transportation infrastructure, factory equipment and other facilities, and find it difficult to recover, especially in the earthquake makes some refineries shut down, which account for about Japan 27% of refining capacity, which will make the short-term decline in oil demand in Japan, March and Japan's oil demand in April fell 10 million barrels / day and 5 million barrels / day or so, I believe that this situation will continue until at least May. But with the commencement of reconstruction, related facilities and gradually repair the refinery capacity will be gradually restored, Japan's oil demand will rise.

As nuclear crisis, Japan is facing power shortage. According to Bloomberg news, the earthquake and tsunami, has 11 nuclear reactors - a total installed capacity of 9.7GW, Japan accounted for 20% of the total installed capacity of nuclear power were forced to close, due to impaired production of complex nuclear power plants take a long time, and with the increased risk of melt-down, Fukushima multiple reactors may be permanently closed.

In order to solve the nuclear problem of power shortage brought off, with the start of reconstruction, Japan will increase crude oil imports, which also push up demand for crude oil. See from the power gap, although some gaps will be filled liquefied natural gas, but most still need the oil and coal and other fossil fuels to make up.

Based on the above points, we can see that, even though Japan's oil demand fell, but with the reconstruction work, the demand for crude oil will increase, and this oil would be a good medium to long term.

II, on the basis of limited impact on the metals market

As the need for post-disaster reconstruction, Japan will also increase the demand for base metals, but our concern is to increase demand. Shift in the global wave of manufacturing to China, Japan is no exception, quite a number of its manufacturing base to China. Since 1995, Japan's position in the global metals markets gradual decline in 2011, the Japanese share of global demand for metals increased from 12% in 1995 to 5%. In absolute terms, due to large-scale transfer of industries, non-ferrous metal consumption in Japan since 1995 has dropped 30%. Japan's non-ferrous metal consumption in 1995 was 20% ahead of China, but China's metal consumption is 7.5 times of Japan go-ahead, which means that the reconstruction of Japan on the impact of global metal supply and demand will be significantly weakened.

Japan's copper demand in 2010 was 102.9 million tons, accounting for 5.55% of global demand, so the increase in copper demand, or will have a certain impact on global supply and demand side, as aluminum and zinc, although there will be some increase in demand, but relative to the global supply and demand can only be slightly increased to reduce the excess supply situation.

Therefore, the reconstruction with respect to the impact on oil demand, the impact of metals on a more limited basis, the reconstruction of the effects of commodity concerned, our focus should be on the changes in the crude oil market.