"Broken window theory" essentially describes the economic impact of post-disaster reconstruction role, focusing on the reconstruction needs of the transmission and proliferation, but it does not make the stock of wealth to society break the ring. As the Japanese earthquake, and its loss is the loss of social wealth is a stock loss, and renewal brought about GDP growth, a traffic growth, this requires special attention in the analysis.

Recalling the history of Japan's earthquake, the closest is the 1995 earthquake in Kobe, Japan. From 1986 -1991, the Japanese economy has just experienced a real estate and stock market bubble burst a heavy blow and fell into deep recession, but two years after the earthquake, the Japanese economy has markedly improved, five quarters after the earthquake, the Japanese GDP per average quarterly growth of 0.7%, mainly due to government efforts to increase investment and consumption. Driven by government investment, with the rehabilitation of infrastructure, in 1996, private investment has also shown a significant increase in momentum, thus boosting the economic recovery.

Worse than the Kobe earthquake in the face of losses, the reconstruction will test the capacity of the Japanese economy. On the one hand, reconstruction of Japan is a long-term project, and its huge investment demand destruction will boost the role of the Japanese economy, especially in Japan has been in the fight against deflation, caused by demand for investment or redevelopment can deflationary pressures ease certain contribution; but on the other hand, the uncertainty of the reconstruction is still large, after the economic downturn in the second quarter, third quarter economic growth will be mainly benefit from public investment in post-disaster reconstruction and economic recovery the pace of rebuilding depends on the degree of recovery of production capacity, but did not eliminate the nuclear crisis and power shortage situation in the latter part of the recovery of production will bring challenges.

I believe that the reconstruction will help the Japanese economy after the severe damage from the earthquake state pick up, but can not afford in the current year to eliminate all the losses caused by the disaster. That is, the reconstruction will boost economic recovery, but the pace should not have too much of their expectations.

Japan's influence on the Chinese economy re-

Japan's post-disaster reconstruction on the development of China's economy what impact? The author analyzes the following two aspects. First, the industrial chain from the point of view, the reconstruction of Japan, China's agricultural products and building materials will benefit the industry. Nuclear leakage triggered by the earthquake crisis, many countries have banned imports of some Japanese food. For China, for security reasons banned in Japan, while imports of some agricultural products, nuclear radiation also contributed to increase in China's agricultural products exported to Japan. April 28, according to Xinhua reported that due to the impact of nuclear radiation disaster relief needs, and Japan, China, Liaoning, Jilin, Shandong, and increasing export orders to Japan. Among them, Liaoning, Dalian food industry exports to Japan have markedly improved, many of Japan in Dalian Development Zone, agricultural products processing enterprises received orders soared.

Japan nuclear leak caused by arable land area decreased, in order to ensure the food supply, Japan will seek additional sources of agricultural imports, while China as Japan's main importer of agricultural products in the next few years or even longer, the plant will be in industries or benefit.

Japan's post-disaster reconstruction has a huge demand for building materials and steel, and power shortages in Japan may make it difficult to meet the needs of local enterprises. As the world's largest steel producer, and the world's largest national construction market and the top exporter of construction services, building related industries in China is expected to derive some benefits.

Second, the yen back from the impact of view on the Chinese economy, the Japanese enterprises in China's capital outflow demand for small, limited impact on China's economy. At present China is still the implementation of a more stringent control of the capital account, direct investment in China to Japanese companies in China face the only large-scale capital outflow channels. But for Japanese companies, this cost of capital outflow is too high, so Japanese companies for a possible outflow of capital did not affect the Chinese economy. On the contrary, due to limited power in Japan, some Japanese companies, or are willing to expand investment in China or to order go to China, such as Toshiba, the Japanese headquarters has decided to base the first valley 10 million LCD TV orders moved to Dalian, the Dalian to build a new production base.

Japan's reconstruction of the global commodity markets

First, the nuclear crisis will lead to increased demand for crude oil in Japan

Nuclear damage caused by the earthquake, and triggering a nuclear leak, by the global attention. After the most dangerous conditions, nuclear power plant operator, said the incident required the efforts of the whole year to get control, perhaps for months or years to know that nuclear radiation on human health, food supply, marine life and extent of the damage the surrounding environment. Fukushima nuclear power plant accident led to a lack of electrical power, the power company is the original opening of the idle power generation equipment, the power supply shortage is expected to continue until summer.