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Thai auto parts supply shortage unpredictable future car production

The beginning of 2011, Thailand's automotive market is still maintained rapid growth momentum, although the previous car market had expected because of the higher base of comparison in 2010 because this year, slowing auto market will show trends, but the latest figures show that the first quarter of 2011, Thailand's automotive market remains relatively rapid growth rate of 43.1% year on year. But this year, Thailand auto market risks in addition to market demand, and oil prices along with tensions in the Middle East and North African countries climbed upgrade increasing pressure, the will face the greatest risk, will be the supply-side risks. The market caused by the earthquake in Japan automobile assembly parts supply shortage is growing concern that the problem of lack parts over time become more serious and may lead to slower growth or even car market shrinking, especially in the second coming quarter.

    However, if the next situation is quite good, that is, in the second half eased the shortage of auto parts, automobile manufacturers can also rush delivery, so that the total car sales this year are more limited impact of this scenario, the Thai Farmers Research Centre for the year 2011 is expected to total vehicle sales in Thailand can maintain the growth rate of about 6-12%, or 85-90 million vehicles sold, an increase below the 2010 level of 45.8% year on year, sales of cars are more than 2010 800 000 zero 357 level. However, if you assume that the situation worse, the auto parts shortages due to insufficient power in Japan until the third quarter of this year has not been reversed, automobile manufacturers, such as the first scenario can not be so rush delivery. So, Thai Farmers Research Center, was expected, the year 2011, total vehicle sales in Thailand to grow by only 4-6%, that is, between 83-85 million total vehicle sales between the levels. For the year 2011, the total number of car sales in Thailand made the forecasts, if there is a better scenario, that is, the duration of the shortage of auto parts soon, automobile manufacturers can work overtime in the second quarter, before the completion due to lack of parts, not the normal production does not meet the

    Scheduled tasks, so that is not expected to affect the production of 1.8 million vehicles this year, the original target; but if the worse scenario, this year, car production in Thailand is bound to be affected, and even lower than the original annual production of 1.8 million vehicles goals. As for how much it would cut the number in the end, and is now temporarily can not be predicted, because the shortage of auto parts not yet clear. Stake in this issue, the next need to continue to pay close attention, particularly in Japan, yet the wave seismic calm, the aftershocks still ongoing, with the domestic electricity supply, there are also the final solution, but also approaching peak summer months.

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