June 1, Arrow Platinum Business Consulting has released a survey report caused a hot discussion. The report predicts that from 2011 to 2016, sales of China's auto market to maintain 15% of the annual average growth rate from now to 2016, electric cars and hybrid vehicles will achieve high penetration in the Chinese market, the average market share rate will reach 13%. The report said China's auto parts suppliers continue to maintain the world's highest level of profitability in 2010, the average profit margin of about 10% higher than the vehicle manufacturer's profit margins by 2.4 percentage points, double the 2008 profit.

    The agency explained that the expected annual growth of 15% from the growth of household wealth. Current annual income over 60,000 yuan in urban households, 72% of households own a car, but the income level of households accounted for only 20% of the total urban households, accounting for 10% of the total number of households. The next 5 years, is expected to exceed the income threshold to double the number of households, automobile growth rate of natural increase. The report also said that the survey is more than 40 local and overseas Chinese automobile manufacturers, suppliers, executives.

    However, this optimistic estimate car prices with the most responsible person's position is very different. Launched during the Shanghai Auto Show, a charge for car prices survey shows that more than 50% of the respondents believed China's automobile market in 2011 an increase of 5% to 10% and 11% of the trend of China's automobile market in 2011 have pessimism that China's automobile market will be zero growth or negative growth, only 17% of people think that this year the growth rate can reach 10% to 15%. For example, SAIC-GM-Wuling, Shanghai GM, Chery, Chang'an Automobile responsible person that the auto market this year, an increase of 5% to 10%. Chen Binbo Dongfeng Honda executive vice president, deputy general manager of Guangzhou Honda Automobile Yu Chun that the auto market this year may be negative growth. May, Dong Yang, Secretary General of the Chinese auto industry is also clear that full-year sales growth in 2011 may not reach the expected 10% to 15%, even lower than GDP growth.

    The first half of this year, the abolition of purchase tax concessions have led to economic decline in car sales, limited license that after the enactment of Beijing, Beijing auto market is entering the winter, and some brands of 200% first-quarter decline in sales. According to reports, Beijing has attracted licensing policy limits of other large and medium cities to follow, if the national brand in the city of more than 10 million units one after another the purchase of the implementation of the policy, the automobile market growth will come down quickly. Clearly, the automobile market growth next 5 years depends largely on the support of the policy direction and support efforts. If the 15% increase is not conducive to the healthy development of the automotive industry, authorities may take measures to adjust, thus affecting the growth rate of the automotive industry.

    In addition, there are two factors that can inhibit the growth of China's automobile market. First, rising oil prices, gasoline prices now close to 93 8 yuan / liter, the person or the oil prices this year predicted that China will be close to 9 per / liter, which will further inhibit the car sales. Second, energy and environmental factors, by 2010 China's dependence on foreign oil has reached 50%, the future could be close to 70%, as car ownership continues to increase, the energy shortage will gradually appear. Also, because the car is one of the main environmental pollution, Beijing will use the 2012 Euro 5 standards, emission standards in other regions are also expected to increase, thus affecting the sales of motor vehicles.

    How much is China's auto market growth in health? Most people believe that the rapid growth of perennial Chinese automobile market is not conducive to healthy development. Because of the excessive growth of the automotive market for the automotive industry itself is not a good thing, too fast growth not only affects product quality, and waste of social resources, but also created a lot of industrial waste, to businesses, consumers and the state have brought had a negative impact, if each year to maintain the steady growth of about 10%, is sustainable and healthy development.

    "In the past year more than 20% or even up to 50% growth in the non-rational abnormal growth, energy, transport, environment and so can not afford, as long as this irrational abnormal growth occurs, then sooner or later the market will give you a hardship to eat, so you modify their behavior. "automotive analyst Jia Xinguang that healthy growth should be compatible with the GDP growth, annual growth is not incompatible with the laws of reality. "