The focus of this week, the market is still economic data. U.S. May employment data is still the focus, and future as the market began to worry about the pressure of economic slowdown, with the ISM index of leading indicators of significance will be particular attention.
Over the past few weeks, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits run, May non-farm employment may not be sustainable until a few months more than 20 million increase. Payrolls to grow by 18 million people (the public sector will still show a net job cuts), from the absolute point of view is still a good figure, but is not satisfactory, especially in the time when the unemployment rate still high , while the unemployment rate remained at 9%.
Pupil "play ball" tape "playing Behind" Three factors to suppress tape another new low A shares adjusted unspeakable "five seven poor must stand six" international board "bad" There was exaggerated [microblogging] still did not sell the idea of the stock [stock it] is very likely that the broader market on Monday to go blind god read the tape together to create products of labor talks does not change positions all the labor market performance. May average hourly pay may still be only increased by 0.1% the previous month, and if it does the final data will show the level of salary increases slowly. Slow growth in average hourly earnings has many meanings: the slow rise in wages means that future inflation pressure is not large, allowing the Fed more comfortably maintain the current monetary policy; but the actual inflation has begun to rise, consumers worrying; other the job market recovery tend to limit the rate of labor productivity, from this perspective, the average salary increase of short-term slowdown is not acceptable.
Employment data reflect past economic situation, and ISM index is a leading significance, given the current market may slow future economic growth is increasing concern, which might be even more attention.
As previously announced regional manufacturing index dropped sharply (such as the Philadelphia manufacturing index), May ISM manufacturing index could fall sharply, the index may decline from April's 60.4 to 56 or so (more than 50 for growth.) In the past two years, the U.S. manufacturing sector has been a major force in the economy out of recession, ISM manufacturing index fell to increased investor concerns about slowing U.S. economic growth. However, because of some temporary factors interfere, I think only one or two months of data is not sufficient to support such judgments. Earthquake in Japan caused by the shortage of auto parts are gradually revealed, auto parts manufacturing industry in the ISM weight is about 6%, excluding the impact of this section may be able to better judge.
From this perspective, the recent ISM non-manufacturing index may be a better indicator of economic trends observed, the market is expected to be higher than the index has increased from 52.8 in April, but the actual situation may be reversed.
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